Tag: COVID-19

5 steps to understand statistics about health risks

The article discusses the role of statistics in understanding health outcomes, particularly in breast cancer and COVID-19. It highlights the importance of epidemiology in guiding medical decisions and emphasizes the need for clear communication of data to prevent misinformation. Understanding statistics can lead to better health choices and disease prevention.

updated June 12, 2025

I reviewed a journal article about breast cancer, and as most medical articles do, it started with statistics.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, you probably weren’t too familiar with the medical science of epidemiology, which is all about statistics.

Epidemiology is the branch of medical science that investigates all the factors that determine the presence or absence of diseases and disorders.

National Institutes of Health

Statistics help us understand what has happened, what is happening, and what may or will happen. Statistics can help determine how something happened.

Epidemiology provides information that can be used to change outcomes in health and disease. Those outcomes may involve life or death.

Health data doesn’t help us much if it stays in medical journals or textbooks. Physicians and other healthcare clinicians use it to counsel patients and make medical recommendations about preventive care, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases.

How doctors use statistics to help patients

You might say we use them as “talking points” to convince people to do things we believe will help them and to avoid doing things we think might hurt them. You’ve seen the same thing happen when public health officials make recommendations about COVID-19 suppression. So a doctor might

recommend you do something -get a mammogram or wear a mask

a mammogram image
a mammogram revealing a breast cancer image source- National Library of Medicine, Open-i
caution you against doing something -smoking cigarettes or gathering in crowds
No Smoking sign with pumpkins
Ask your doctor about ways to help you stop smoking.
encourage a behavior-wearing sunscreen or keeping 6 feet distance
Practice Social Distancing

all based on knowing the epidemiology of breast, lung, and skin cancers, and COVID-19 based on statistics.

Breast cancer incidence and risk

So getting back to the breast cancer article, I think many women overestimate their risk of getting and dying from breast cancer. According to the article, in the

past 5 years, 2.3 million cases of breast cancer

in women have been diagnosed in the United States (breast cancer does occur in men but the number is so low it does not change this total significantly)

The mortality rate for breast cancer is 20 deaths/100,000 women. The most recent number for deaths in 1 year is 42,000. (United States)

chance of developing breast cancer by age 70-National Cancer Institute
Source: National Cancer Institute (NCI)
The majority of women have NORMAL BRCA.

COVID-19 by comparison

There were 27 million cases of COVID-19 February 2020-February 2021

diagnosed in both men and women in the United States. (And many experts suspect that thousands of cases have gone unrecognized.)

The mortality rate for COVID-19 then was approximately 134/100,000 people. The current number of deaths in the past year is 460,000. (These numbers are compiled by Johns Hopkins University and are current as of the original published day of this post)

Photo by Anton Uniqueton on Pexels.com

WHO, the World Health Organization, reports that 2.3 million new cases of breast cancer occurred last year, while in less than a year there have been 105 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19.

Did these numbers surprise you?
Did they cause you to change your mind about something?
Will you change behavior based on these numbers?

What does it matter?

Healthcare professionals use statistics to understand and predict health risks, then counsel their patients about maintaining health and preventing disease, disability, and early death. One way they do so is with screening tests, like mammograms, to detect early breast cancer when it is easier to treat. successfully.

a female physician talking to a male patient

Public health professionals do the same thing, but apply the knowledge to large populations of people, such as infants, children, adolescents, pregnant women, or the elderly. And sometimes to an entire neighborhood, town, state, or nation, as we’ve seen happen with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, recommending masking, social distancing, handwashing, and vaccination.

But when health, especially public health, becomes politicized, these “talking points” can be used to

  • inflame rather than inform
  • manipulate not motivate
  • confuse rather than comfort
  • cause panic instead of instilling peace.

This is more likely to happen when we don’t understand the statistics and reasoning behind the recommendations. I believe much of the misinformation shared on social media unintentional, but stems from misunderstanding of the intended message.

The Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics

This is the title of a new book by Financial Times columnist Tim Harford in which he tries to answer the question

Why do we believe what isn’t true?

In an interview by Erica Pandey, Harford encourages us to be curious and open-minded, and ask the right questions with a desire to understand. When you read or hear some new or disturbing information about any controversial topic, ask yourself if the teller is trying to make you smarter or trying to win an argument.

(AXIOS Today podcast February 5, 2021)

(This is an affiliate link, meaning it may pay a commission to this blog is a sale occurs.)

If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.

The Data Detective listing on Amazon

My 5 guidelines for making sense of information

  • RECOGNIZE any bias, inconsistencies, contradictions; does it confirm what you already know? If not, why not? What is it trying to make you believe?
  • RESEARCH other sources and other media, what do they say about the topic, and are they credible?
  • REVIEW all the information you find trustworthy; do you have all the information you need to make a conclusion?
  • RECONSIDER when new information becomes available or circumstances change; if significant, you may need to start the process all over.
  • REMEMBER almost everything is subject to reinterpretation; as the numbers change, so may the conclusions. Statistics give us a chance to learn and understand, but aren’t the best way to prove a point or to win arguments .

final thoughts-Know Your Chances

(an affiliate link)

How to see through the hype in medical news, ads, and public service announcements

be a healthy skeptic. That doesn’t mean you have to be a cynic, simply disbelieving all the health messages you hear.

Instead, it means approaching messages critically: looking out for—and seeing through—common tactics used to exaggerate the importance of health problems or actions you can take to address them.

These tactics include emphasizing unimportant outcomes, avoiding numbers, or presenting statistics in ways that make them seem more important than they really are.

Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics, by Steven, Woloshin, Lisa M. Schwartz, and H. Gilbert Welch. © 2008 by the Regenets of the University of California. Published by the University of California Press. (Read free at this link)

Exploring the HEART of Health

Find up-to-date information about breast cancer from The American Cancer Society and in Breast Cancer Clear & Simple (an affiliate link)

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Dr. Aletha

President Biden Confronts SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)-an update

In his 2023 State of the Union Address, President Joe Biden highlighted significant progress in fighting the pandemic. COVID deaths are down by 90 percent, and he aims to end the public health emergency soon. The United States government’s response involves various agencies, and the President’s Cabinet secretary manages the COVID-19 response. President Biden and Vice President Harris have developed a comprehensive 7-point plan to confront and control COVID-19, focusing on vaccination, mitigation, and global leadership.

update February 24, 2023

In his 2023 State of the Union Address, President Joe Biden said,

 let’s recognize how far we came in the fight against the pandemic itself.

While the virus is not gone, thanks to the resilience of the American people and the ingenuity of medicine, we’ve broken the COVID grip on us.

COVID deaths are down by 90 percent. We’ve saved millions of lives and opened up our country — we opened our country back up.

And soon, we’ll end the public health emergency.

looking back at COVID-19

On March 11,2021 President Biden addressed the country about the current progress of ending the pandemic. He said

I carry a card in my pocket with the number of Americans who have died from COVID to date. It’s on the back of my schedule. As of now, the total deaths in America: 527,726.

President Biden

He announced we will have enough vaccine for every adult to be vaccinated by the end of May 2021.

Concerning current vaccination progress, we have vaccinated

  • 65% of people over age 65
  • 70% of people over age 70

Concerning schools he said

with the passage of the American Rescue Plan — I thank the House and Senate for passing it — and my…. plan to vaccinate teachers and school staff….. we can accelerate the massive, nationwide effort to reopen our schools safely and meet my goal… of opening the majority of K-8 schools in my first 100 days in office. This is going to be the number one priority of my new Secretary of Education, Miguel Cardona.

President Biden

Thanks to usnews.com for publishing the complete transcript of his speech at this link.

President Joe Biden on the Coronavirus Pandemic

The United States government and healthcare

Here is a brief review of the healthcare agencies of the United States government.

The President leads the Executive Branch of the government, including all of the departments and agencies headed by the Cabinet members, including the Department of Health and Human Services.

The sitting President heads the Executive Branch of the U.S. Government.

The Department of Health and Human Services ,through the President’s Cabinet secretary, manages the response to COVID-19. Other Cabinet members and their Departments are involved as well.

The agencies most involved in the COVID-19 response include

  • Health and Human Services-HHS
  • Federal Emergency Management Agency-FEMA
  • Centers for Disease Control-CDC
  • National Institutes of Health-NIH
  • Federal Drug Administration-FDA
  • Small Business Administration-SBA
  • Veterans Administration-VA
  • Department of Defense -DOD
  • Treasury Department
  • State Department

an electron microscope image of the coronavirus
the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, responsible for causing COVID-19- photo used with permission, CDC.GOV

December 31, 2019-China reports the coronavirus to WHO-the World Health Organization.

2020-The Biden-Harris Plan

During their campaign for the White House, Mr. Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris posted a 7 point plan to confront and control COVID-19.

2021-National Strategy for the COVID-19 Response and Pandemic Preparedness

President Biden, Vice President Harris, and their science and healthcare teams developed a plan with 7 goals to end the pandemic and prevent others. You can read the entire 200 page report at the link. Here is a list of the 7 goals with a few of the points of each goal.

1. Restore trust with the American people.
  • establishes a federal COVID-19 response team to coordinate efforts
  • regular public briefings led by science experts
  • track and make data available to the public by the CDC
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC) to coordinate with the World Health Organization (WHO), federal, state and local public health partners, and clinicians in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. CDC is closely monitoring the situation and working 24/7 to provide updates.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC) to coordinate with the World Health Organization (WHO), federal, state and local public health partners, and clinicians in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. CDC is closely monitoring the situation and working 24/7 to provide updates credit James Gathany, public domain
2.Mount a safe, effective, and comprehensive vaccination campaign.
  • increase the production of vaccines
  • give states clearer projections on vaccine availability
  • partner with states to create more vaccine centers
  • launch a national campaign to educate and encourage Americans on vaccine
3. Mitigate spread through expanding masking, testing, data, treatments,health care workforce, and clear public health standards.
  • asking Americans to wear masks for 100 days (note-this adds to any state or local recommendations or mandates on mask use)
  • require masks on public transportation
  • the CDC develop guidelines to help schools and businesses to reopen
  • create programs to develop new treatments for COVID-19
cloth facial coverings to prevent transmission of COVID-19
Mask use required on airplanes, trains, and other public transportation
4.Immediately expand emergency relief and exercise the Defence Production Act.
  • increase emergency funding to the states for pandemic costs, including for PPE and use of National Guard
  • invoke the Defense Production Act to increase the supply of PPE, and testing and vaccination supplies
5. Safely reopen schools, businesses, and travel while protecting workers.
  • develop a national strategy to reopen most schools within 100 days
  • federal agencies to issue updated guidance on protection for workers
  • asks Congress to provide financial aid to schools, universities, and daycares (cost in the billions)
a girl with a large backpack, walking to a school bus
6. Protect those most at risk and advance equity, including across racial, ethnic and rural/urban lines.
  • establishes an equity task force to address disparities based on race, ethnicity, and geography
  • create a U.S. Public Health Workforce to help with testing and vaccinations in their communities
Healthy People 2030, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. Retrieved [date graphic was accessed], from https://health.gov/healthypeople/objectives-and-data/social-determinants-health
7. Restore U.S. leadership globally and build better preparedness for future threats.
  • rejoin the World Health Organization
  • increase humanitarian aid and support efforts to fight COVID-19 around the world
  • asks for Congressional support to establish a national center to prepare for future biological threats
2 bandaids crossed on a world globe
photo from the Lightstock collection (affiliate link)

Exploring the HEART of health

I’d love for you to follow this blog and follow me on social media.

I share information and inspiration to help you transform challenges into opportunities for learning and growth.

Add your name to the subscribe box to be notified of new posts by email. Click the link to read the post and browse other content. It’s that simple. No spam.

I enjoy seeing who is new to Watercress Words. When you subscribe, I will visit your blog or website. Thanks and see you next time.

Dr. Aletha

And this is still good advice to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and other contagious diseases.