Tag: health policy

Key Predictions about 2026 Health Policy from an Expert

In this post I review some 2026 healthcare predictions for likely continuation of partisan gridlock, minimal congressional action, and increased focus on health care affordability amid midterm elections. Key issues to watch include ACA enrollment responses, Medicaid work requirements, rising insurance costs, and the impact of AI on consumer health care navigation.

This information is current as of the date of original publication or update. It may have changed by the time you read this. I invite you to fact-check what you read here.

This information is not intended for diagnosis or treatment. Before making health decisions, discuss with your physician or other qualified healthcare provider to decide what is right for you.

As we anticipate 2026, here is a look at what the federal government may do with healthcare in the United States.

This is a reprint of an article first published on KFF and shared here by permission.

The author is Drew Altman, President and Chief Executive Officer of KFF, a position he has held for over 30 years, founding the KFF organization in the 1990s. He is a leading expert on national health policy issues and an innovator in health journalism and the nonprofit field.

(Note: I have edited this article for length and readability. I linked to the original content so you can read the full sections. The photos are for illustration and are not affiliated with the original article on KFF. AO)

Health Policy in 2026

from Drew Altman, December 8, 2025

Forecasting the year ahead in health policy is always treacherous because events intervene and screw up even the best predictions. But my working theory is that the sharp partisan divide in Congress, and even sharper disagreement on health care policy, can produce only small-ball actions on health next year.

So, what should you watch for that will really matter for people, policy, and politics?

Voter Reaction to the ACA in the Midterms

First and foremost is the role that health care affordability will play in the midterms. Assuming there is no deal on the enhanced ACA (Affordable Care Act) tax credits, spiking premium payments in the Marketplaces will become the national symbol for voters of concerns about their health care bills.

Democrats will prosecute the issue to the fullest, and Republicans will generally try to shift the subject and fight on other issues. Health care affordability will be in the spotlight, but how important it is as a vote-and-turnout driver remains to be determined.

Photo by Edmond Dantu00e8s on Pexels.com

How ACA Enrollment Might Change

Second, again assuming there’s no deal on the tax credits, we’ll see how enrollees actually respond in the Marketplaces. What share of the 24 million enrollees switch to cheaper high-deductible plans? What is the impact of doing that on their financial security and health-seeking behavior? What happens to older and sicker enrollees who need better, more comprehensive coverage? How many millions choose to be uninsured in 2026 and who are they?

Medicaid Work Requirements

Third, states that have expanded Medicaid will be gearing up for Medicaid work requirements, which kick in in 2027.

Red states may be looking for flexibility to implement the toughest possible requirements and reduce their Medicaid rolls and spending.

Blue states will be looking for nooks and crannies in the law and the rules to lessen the impact in the hopes that Democrats seize control again in 2028 and reverse the requirements.

Having implemented state welfare work requirements myself, I know there is always some ability to shade implementation depending on the goals of a state.

In our case in New Jersey, we had little interest in kicking people off welfare (and into homelessness or deep poverty, which we’d also have to address). We did have a big interest in providing job training, childcare, transportation, and a pathway to jobs.

More Expensive Health Insurance

Fourth, after years of moderate increases, health costs will increase more sharply again. Employer premium increases may not touch double digits but could come close.

The average cost of a family policy for employers could approach $30,000. Cost-sharing and deductibles will likely rise again after plateauing for several years.

Employers and public payers are increasingly skittish about the costs of GLP-1s for weight loss. It’s possible GLP-1s could turn from today’s dilemma to a technology-diffusion success story of sorts. (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1)

Costs are coming down, pills are on the horizon, and payers are developing more sensible guidelines for their initial and long-term use.

In a country where the dam breaks on every effective new medical technology and it’s rapidly disseminated at high costs, GLP-1s could emerge as a more balanced and sensible example of technology diffusion. Like most new medical technologies, it still increases costs.  

Drug and Hospital Costs Increase

Fifth, the Trump administration has put pressure on drug prices through a variety of initiatives. Probably the most important is Medicare drug price negotiations, which began in the Biden years, but together they are putting pressure on drug prices.

Still, retail drug spending is only 9% of overall health spending (16% for employers) and there is growing awareness that hospitals gobble up the single largest share of the health care dollar.

Proposals to cap hospital prices or put hospitals on a budget seem to be coming back into fashion again but are non-starters with Republicans in charge, as of course is single payer.

For 2026, we can look generally for greater attention being paid to hospital prices and possibly greater action at the state level, where several states have established hospital cost targets with varying degrees of teeth. 

Prior Authorization Review

Sixth, people (and providers) hate prior authorization review. Will the administration’s voluntary effort to work with industry to streamline and pare back prior authorization result in any concrete relief for patients when it kicks in this year?

MAHA and Vaccinations

Seventh, four in 10 Americans say they identify with the MAHA agenda. We’ll learn more in the coming year about which tenets of this loose movement have staying power. (Make America Healthy Again)

Everyone is for exercise and for healthier food for kids (although I do still miss those Hostess Cupcakes and Twinkies that I had as a kid).

But people who have serious illnesses may grow tired of the central MAHA notion that they are personally responsible for disease and may increasingly make the connection between their own need for medical care and cuts in Medicaid and ACA coverage.

President Trump and Secretary Kennedy at the MAHA commission meeting, public domain photo

There is some overlap between MAHA and the anti-vax movement. Another thing to watch: will vaccination rates continue to decline as the administration chips away at universal vaccination and trust in vaccines?

Patients Using AI for Health

Eighth, AI means a lot for physicians, researchers, hospitals, insurance companies, and investors, with profound implications in some areas of medicine, such as radiology. But when will AI start having real meaning for the things people care about most: their costs and their ability to navigate the health system? (AI-Artificial Intelligence)

The implications and practical applications for consumers receive far less attention, as generally does the relatively low level of trust in AI. Possibly, 2026 will be the year when attention shifts more seriously to the consumer side of AI in health. 

Conclusion

All told, it will be a big year ahead in health policy. And this list only just scratches the surface. (Others include the CDC, NIH, FDA, and Medicare.)

But there probably won’t be a lot of significant action in Congress. Still, every incremental change is a big fight in health care, and hard won, and in a hyper-partisan Congress, 2026 will be no different. 

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

Subscribe to KFF Health News’ free Morning Briefing.

This article first appeared on KFF Health News and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

How health policies may affect you.

Based on what you know now, how likely are these predictions correct?

Which of these issues are most important to your healthcare?

How will you respond to health policy changes that affect you? What information do you need?

How do you and your family contribute to “making America healthy again”?

Cover Photo

The cover image was created by the AI feature of Jetpack. (affiliate link)

Exploring the HEART of Health

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Dr Aletha

How the President Shapes Federal Health Programs

This post, part two of a series, outlines the extensive role of the federal government in U.S. health policy, primarily through the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). It discusses the executive branch’s involvement in health regulation, funding, and policy formation, emphasizing the significance of HHS programs and leadership roles.

This is the second post in a series helping us understand the federal government’s role in health policy in the United States. In short, its role is extensive and expensive. You can read the first post here.

The Constitution does not specifically say the government controls or provides healthcare. The Preamble hints with “promote the general welfare”.

Considering how basic and unorganized medical science was in the late 18th century, it’s not surprising they did not consider it in the plans for the new government.

I am publishing a series of posts based on

Congress and the Executive Branch and Health Policy

by Julie Jovner at KFF, an independent source for health policy research, polling, and news, an endowed national nonprofit organization.

Ms. Jovner’s article explains how the three branches of government work together, why the Department of Health and Human Services (and therefore its Secretary) is so important, and the budgeting and regulation processes.

This series is nonpartisan and objective. I made minimal edits to improve readability but retain meaning. I insert comments in parentheses to add clarity.

The photos are for illustration only and are not in the KFF article.

The Executive Branch

This post focuses on the executive branch of government, The White House including the President and his Cabinet, especially the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services.

The President

The executive branch carries out the laws made by Congress and operates the federal health programs, often filling in details Congress has left out through rules and regulations.

Federal workers in the health arena provide direct patient care, regulate how others provide care, set payment rates and policies, conduct medical or health systems research, regulate products sold by the private sector, and manage the billions of dollars the federal government spends on the health-industrial complex.   

Although most of the executive branch’s health policies are implemented by the Department of Health and Human Services (and to a smaller extent, the Departments of Labor and Justice), over the past several decades the White House itself (through the President) has taken on a more prominent role in policy formation.

President Donald Trump visited NIH on March 3, 2020 and toured the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ Vaccine Research Center (VRC) to learn about research on a vaccine for the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

Most federal health policy is made through the Department of Health and Human Services except for several key areas.

Exceptions include the 

  • Veterans Health Administration, run by the Department of Veterans Affairs;
  •  TRICARE, the health insurance program for active-duty military members and dependents, run by the Defense Department; and the 
  • Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHB), which provides health insurance for civilian federal workers and families and is run by the independent agency the Office of Personnel Management.   

The health-related agencies within HHS are roughly divided into the resource delivery, research, regulatory, and training agencies that comprise the U.S. Public Health Service and the health insurance programs run by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).  

The Surgeon General oversees the U.S. Public Health Service (USPHS) Commissioned Corps, an elite group of over 6,000 uniformed officers who are public health professionals. The USPHS mission is to protect, promote, and advance the health of our nation.

The U.S. Public Health Service

Ten of the 13 operating divisions of HHS are part of the U.S. Public Health Service, which also plays a role in U.S. global health programs. They are:  

  • The Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR)
  • The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health  (ARPA-H)
  • The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ)  
  • The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR)  
  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)  
  • The Food and Drug Administration (FDA)  
  • The Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA)  
  • The Indian Health Service (IHS)  
  • The National Institutes of Health (NIH)  
  • The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)  

CMS

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is by far the largest operating division of HHS. It oversees not just the Medicare and Medicaid programs, but also the federal Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and the health insurance portions of the Affordable Care Act(ObamaCare).

Together, the programs under the auspices of CMS account for nearly a quarter of all federal spending in fiscal 2023, cost an estimated $1.5 Trillion in fiscal 2023, and served more than 170 million Americans – more than half the population.  

KFF’s website content is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license that allows for the sharing of our information with proper attribution and without alteration.

End of KFF article

The President’s Cabinet and other Agency Heads

As you can imagine, the leadership organization of HHS is large and complex. At the top is the Secretary, who is a member of the President’s Cabinet , approved by the Senate.

Other key leadership positions, all of which are appointed by the President include

  • U.S. Surgeon General
  • Director of the CDC
  • Commissioner of Food and Drugs (FDA)
  • Director of the NIH
  • Director of the National Library of Medicine
  • Administrator of CMS
James H. Shannon Building (Building One), NIH campus, Bethesda, MD
James H. Shannon Building (Building One), NIH campus, Bethesda, MD

Looking ahead-Congress

In the next post in this series, we will consider Congress’s role in overseeing these agencies and, most importantly, funding them.

“How Congress oversees the federal health care-industrial complex is almost as byzantine as the U.S. health system itself.

Jurisdiction and responsibility for various health agencies and policies is divided among more than two dozen committees in the House and Senate.”

KFF

Exploring the HEART of Health

I took the cover photo for this post at the Reagan Presidential Library in California. It is a replica of the Oval Office during his administration.

Thanks for getting through another post that’s maybe more informative than inspiring. I hope you learned something.

I’d love for you to follow this blog. I share information and inspiration to help you turn health challenges into health opportunities.

Add your name to the subscribe box to be notified of new posts by email. Click the link to read the post and browse other content. It’s that simple. No spam.

I enjoy seeing who is new to Watercress Words. When you subscribe, I will visit your blog or website. Thanks and see you next time.

Dr. Aletha